Month: April 2018

“He’s An Idiot”: John Kelly Reportedly Insults Trump In Front Of Aides, Plans May Departure: NBC

White House chief of staff John Kelly has reportedly been undermining morale in the West Wing in recent months – commenting to aides that President Trump is an idiot, while touting himself as the “savior of the country,” reports NBC News, citing “eight current and former White House officials.”

The officials said Kelly portrays himself to Trump administration aides as the lone bulwark against catastrophe, curbing the erratic urges of a president who has a questionable grasp on policy issues and the functions of government. He has referred to Trump as “an idiot” multiple times to underscore his point, according to four officials who say they’ve witnessed the comments. –NBC News

NBC notes that three White House spokespeople say the “idiot” thing just isn’t true, and he may have spoken in jest about saving the country.

In one heated exchange between the two men before February’s Winter Olympics in South Korea, Kelly strongly — and successfully — dissuaded Trump from ordering the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from the Korean peninsula, according to two officials.

For Kelly, the exchange underscored the reasoning behind one of his common refrains, which multiple officials described as some version of “I’m the one saving the country.

“The strong implication being ‘if I weren’t here we would’ve entered WWIII or the president would have been impeached,’” one former senior White House official said. –NBC News

“He doesn’t even understand what DACA is. He’s an idiot,” Kelly said in one meeting, according to two officials who were present. “We’ve got to save him from himself.”

According to NBC’s sources, Kelly has been hiding behind his public image as a four-star, while in truth operating in an “undisciplined and indiscreet” manner. “The private manner aides describe may shed new light on why Kelly now finds himself — just nine months into the job — grappling with diminished influence and a drumbeat of questions about how long he’ll remain at the White House.” 

“He says stuff you can’t believe,” one senior White House official tells NBC News. “He’ll say it and you think, ‘That is not what you should be saying.‘”

According to presidential historian Michael Beschloss, Kelly’s comments about Trump vs. prior White House chiefs of “suggest a lack of respect for the sitting president of a kind that we haven’t seen before,” adding that the closest would have to be President Ronald Reagan’s chief of staff, Don Regan, who “somewhat looked down on” The Gipper, and eventually lost Reagan’s support – having been replaced after two years by Howard Baker.

 

Meanwhile, insults or not, Trump is said to have soured on Kelly – and is aware of some, “though not all” of Kelly’s comments. And as NBC News points out, “The last time it became public that one of Trump’s top advisers insulted his intelligence behind his back, it didn’t go over well with the president. White House aides have said Trump never got over former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson calling him a “moron” in front of colleagues, which was first reported by NBC News. Trump later challenged Tillerson to an IQ test and fired him several months after the remark became public.”

Current and former White House officials said Kelly has at times made remarks that have rattled female staffers. Kelly has told aides multiple times that women are more emotional than men, including at least once in front of the president, four current and former officials said.

And during a firestorm in February over accusations of domestic abuse against then-White House staff secretary Rob Porter, Kelly wondered aloud how much more Porter would have to endure before his honor could be restored, according to three officials who were present for the comments. He also questioned why Porter’s ex-wives wouldn’t just move on based on the information he said he had about his marriages, the officials said.

So in addition to Kelly allegedly calling Trump an idiot, he’s also a misogynist, according to NBC.

Kelly is expected to leave by July – his one-year mark, according to sources, however others say it’s anyone’s guess. That said, “what’s clear is both Trump and Kelly seem to have tired of each other.” 

Kelly appears to be less engaged, which may be to the president’s detriment,” a second senior White House official said. If NBC is correct, we’re about to once again play White House Musical Chairs. 

That said, when reached for comment, Kelly that it’s all more fake news:

“He and I both know this story is total BS. I am committed to the president, his agenda, and our country. This is another pathetic attempt to smear people close to President Trump…

One hopes that is the case, then again one also remembers the Rex Tillerson incident…

The post “He’s An Idiot”: John Kelly Reportedly Insults Trump In Front Of Aides, Plans May Departure: NBC appeared first on crude-oil.news.

Couple of potential long opportunities on the GBPJPY H4 chart

Couple of potential long opportunities on the GBPJPY H4 chart

GBP/JPY FOREXCOM:GBPJPY


There could be a couple of potential entries if you were wanting to get long GBPJPY             over the coming days. The first over on the left hand side is an advance fib pattern in the form of a bullish Bat pattern completing around the 149 even handle (just below it). It also looks like an equal measured move ( AB=CD ) is being traced out from the A point of the pattern down to the potential entry level.

On the right hand side, we have a potential fib inversion trade, again looking for a bit of an upside move on form the beast. Price action will need to get down towards the 149.35 area if this trade were to be filled, following which I’d be looking to take traditional targets on this one as well.

Lets see how the week continues and whether or not these will come into play or not. Food for thought for the moment.

The US Just Borrowed $488 Billion In One Quarter, The Most Since The Financial Crisis

For months, analysts have been warning that the US is set to borrow an unprecedented – for a non-recessionary period – amount of money…

… and on Monday afternoon this was confirmed, when the US Treasury announced that in the quarter ended March 31 (the fiscal year’s second), the US borrowed $47BN more than its had anticipated three months ago, or $488BN to be precise.

This was the single biggest quarterly amount of debt sold by the US Treasury since the record $569BN in debt borrowed in Q4 2008 when the financial system nearly collapsed, and Treasury had no choice but to raise a gargantuan amount of money during the biggest financial crisis in modern US history.

What makes the just passed quarter different, however, is that there was no crisis, not even a recession. In fact, in the first quarter US GDP rose by 2.3% according to the BEA amid what, until recently, the “experts” said was a global coordinated recovery.

In retrospect, it appears the “recovery” was only around long enough for the US and/or China to raise near record amounts of debt.

As a result of the near-record borrowing spree, the US ended the quarter with $290BN in cash, more than the $210BN budgeted.

What is scary is how fast the US is raking up the debt: as a reminder, just a few weeks ago we reported that in the first six months of the fiscal year, the US budget deficit rose to $600 billion as spending increased at three times the pace of revenue growth in the October-to-March period. At that run-rate, the US deficit will soar to $1.2 trillion for fiscal 2018, far above the $804BN projected budget gap and resulting in an even greater amount of debt borrowed.

Commenting on the debt splurge, the Treasury said tax changes are “poised to underpin near-term consumption and investment” and “the stage is set for a pick-up in growth over the near term.”

They better, because if all we have to show for nearly a half a trillion in debt in one quarter is 2.3% GDP, then the US is in very serious trouble.

Looking ahead, the Treasury forecast a need to issue $75BN in net marketable debt in the current quarter, $101BN below the last forecast, and assumes the cash balance continues to rise by the end of June to $360 billion, the TSY said. The April-June borrowing estimate is $101 billion less than its previous forecast, which was partly driven by the higher cash flows.

As for the last quarter fo the fiscal year (calendar Q3), the Treasury plans to borrow a net $273 billion, assuming a cash balance of $350 billion by the end of that period.

It is safe to assume that the Treasury will be well “over” all its borrowing estimates.

 

 

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Is This The Collapse You Ordered…?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

I had a fellow on my latest podcast, released Sunday, who insists that the world population will crash 90-plus percent from the current 7.6 billion to 600 million by the end of this century. Jack Alpert heads an outfit called the Stanford Knowledge Integration Lab (SKIL) which he started at Stanford University in 1978 and now runs as a private research foundation. Alpert is primarily an engineer.

At 600 million, the living standard in the USA would be on a level with the post-Roman peasantry of Fifth century Europe, but without the charm, since many of the planet’s linked systems — soils, oceans, climate, mineral resources — will be in much greater disarray than was the case 1,500 years ago. Anyway, that state-of-life may be a way-station so something more dire. Alpert’s optimal case would be a world human population of 50 million, deployed in three “city-states,” in the Pacific Northwest, the Uruguay / Paraguay border region, and China, that could support something close to today’s living standards for a tiny population, along with science and advanced technology, run on hydropower. The rest of world, he says, would just go back to nature, or what’s left of it. Alpert’s project aims to engineer a path to that optimal outcome.

I hadn’t encountered quite such an extreme view of the future before, except for some fictional exercises like Cormac McCarthy’s The Road. (Alpert, too, sees cannibalism as one likely byproduct of the journey ahead.) Obviously, my own venture into the fictionalized future of the World Made by Hand books depicted a much kinder and gentler re-set to life at the circa-1800 level of living, at least in the USA. Apparently, I’m a sentimental softie.

Both of us are at odds with the more generic techno-optimists who are waiting patiently for miracle rescue remedies like cold fusion while enjoying re-runs of The Big Bang Theory. (Alpert doesn’t completely rule out as-yet-undeveloped energy sources, though he acknowledges that they’re a low-percentage prospect.) We do agree with basic premise that the energy supply is mainly what supports the way we live now, and that it shows every evidence of entering a deep and destabilizing decline that will halt the activities necessary to keep our networks of dynamic systems running.

A question of interest to many readers is how soon or how rapid the unraveling of these systems might be. When civilizations crumble, it tends to fast-track. The Roman empire seems to be an exception, but in many ways it was far more resilient than ours, being a sort of advanced Flintstones economy, with even its giant-scale activities (e.g. building the Coliseum) being accomplished by human-powered work. In any case, the outfit really fell apart steadily after the reign of emperor Marcus Aurelius (180 AD).

The Romans had their own version of a financialized economy: they simply devalued their coins by mixing in less and less silver at the mint, so they could pretend to pay for the same luxuries they had grown accustomed to as resources stretched thin. Our financialized economy — like everything else we do — operates at levels of complexity so baffling that even its supposed managers at the central banks are flying blind through fogs of debt, deception, and moral hazard. When that vessel of pretense slams into a mountain top, the effects are likely to be quick and lethal to the economies on the ground below.

In our time, the most recent crash of a major socioeconomic system was the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990-91. Of course, it happened against the backdrop of a global system that was still revving pretty well outside the USSR, and that softened the blow. Ultimately, the Russians still had plenty of oil to sell, which allowed them to re-set well above the Fifth Century peasant level of existence. At least for now. The Soviet Union collapsed because it was a thoroughly dishonest system that ran on pretense and coercion. Apparently, the US Intel Community completely missed the signs that political collapse was underway.

They seem to be pretty clueless about the fate of the USA these days, too. If you consider the preoccupations of two very recent Intel chiefs — John Brennan of CIA and James Clapper, DNI — who now inveigh full-time on CNN as avatars of the Deep State against the wicked Golden Golem of Greatness. Personally, I expect our collapse to be as sudden and unexpected as the USSR’s, but probably bloodier because there’s simply more stuff just lying around to fight over. Of course, I expect the collapse to express itself first in banking, finance, and markets — being so deeply faith-based and so subject to simple failures of faith. But it will become political and social soon enough, maybe all-at once. And when it happens in the USA, it will spread through the financial systems the whole world round.

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A great opportunity for Shorting NZDCHF

A great opportunity for Shorting NZDCHF


Hello colleagues

Let’s have the first trade of the week – NZDCHF             Short.

Here are a few reasons that I think this is a wining trade.

First let’s look at NZD:

1) This is weighted average NZD versus other major currencies. See how it made a false breakout of the major channel and the black flag. Currently it broke the other side of the flag and retested the lower band of the flag. I expect weaker NZD which is good for our NZDCHF             Short trade.

2) This is NZD futures . It has the same message as above. Breaking lower and continuation.

3) This is NZD bonds Yields. It dropped today by 1.72% and I expect it visits the lower band of the channel. Again signals cheaper NZD.

Now let’s look at CHF:

4) This is weighted average CHF. It is sitting at a major support and I expect a bounce as early as tomorrow as it is the first day of the month.

5) Last chart also has the same message. It is CHF futures .

PM me if you would like to hear more about entry signal, SL and PT.
GL

Gold Prices Start Week With Losses – Are We Headed to $1300?

Gold prices continue to head south, as the base metal has resumed its losing ways on Monday, erasing the gains seen on Friday. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1316.80, down 0.52% on the day. On the release front, key US indicators were mixed. Personal Spending improved to 0.4%, matching the forecast. This marked a 3-month high. The news was not as positive from the housing sector, as Pending Home Sales dropped to 0.4%, down sharply from 3.1% in the previous release. On Tuesday, the key event is ISM Manufacturing PMI.

As the US dollar continues to shine, gold prices have been under pressure, losing 2.0% since April 16. The symbolic $1300 level is in sight, a threshold not breached since late December. There are a number of factors weighing on gold prices. Investor risk appetite remains strong, as tensions in the Korean peninsula have dropped rapidly. The leaders of North and South Korea met last week for a historic meeting, and US President Trump is scheduled to meet with North Korean leader Kim in the near future. On the domestic front, the US economy continues to perform well and inflation is moving higher. This has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates four times in 2018, which is bullish for the US dollar.

US indicators ended the week with the first GDP report for the first quarter. Advance GDP posted a respectable gain of 2.3% which beat the estimate of 2.0 percent. Still, this was a significant drop from GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018, which came in at 2.8 percent. Analysts also took note of the Employment Cost Index, which rose from 0.6% to 0.8%, another indication that inflation is moving higher. There is growing sentiment that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates four times this year, although Fed policymakers continue to project a total of three increases in 2018. One scenario envisions the Fed raising rates once each quarter until the economy shows signs of slowing down. If inflation continues to move higher and economic conditions remain strong, the US dollar could continue to make headway against its major rivals, including gold.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

 Monday (April 30)

  • 8:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.4%
  • 9:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 58.2
  • 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 0.6%

Tuesday (May 1)

  • 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.6

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

XAU/USD for Monday, April 30, 2018

XAU/USD April 30 at 12:45 DST

Open: 1323.70 High: 1325.03 Low: 1310.30 Close: 1316.80

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1260 1285 1307 1337 1375 1416
  • XAU/USD edged lower in the Asian session and recorded stronger losses in European trade. The pair edged downwards in North American trade but has reversed directions
  • 1307 is providing support
  • 1337 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1307 to 1337

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1307, 1285 and 1260
  • Above: 1337, 1375, 1416 and 1433

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, XAU/USD ratio is showing long positions with a majority (60%). This is indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving upwards.  

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Geopolitics Back in Driving Seat of Energy Prices

Following the 2014 crash in oil prices, a number of leading market commentators concluded that the era of geopolitics mattering for the oil market was over.

In their view, short-cycle U.S. production was waiting in the wings to fill any supply gap and would swiftly cap any price upside. It was in this context that OPEC’s obituaries once again abounded, with the sovereign producer group seen as resigned to lower for longer (or even lower forever) and too hopelessly divided to return to active market management.


West Texas Intermediate graph

Yet even now, despite the recent run-up in oil prices, this narrative continues to carry considerable currency. The teaser for the panel on energy markets that I am speaking on at the Milken Institute Global Conference, highlights relentless U.S. production offsetting OPEC reductions, renewables disrupting traditional energy markets, and the geopolitical implications of US production growth displacing Russia as the world’s largest oil producer.

Yet, we think that there are broader geopolitical factors at play, as geopolitics have returned to the fore for a number of major producer states as well as the oil market generally in 2018. The oil market has tightened significantly in no small part due to the effectiveness of OPEC in draining bloated global inventories as well as the healthy demand outlook.

via CNBC

USDCAD… Are we going down??

USDCAD… Are we going down??


Price is clearly showing pattern of channel line rejections, we have had 4 so far. We also have some Bearish Hidden Divergence forming which could lead to a nice bearish leg down to test the bottom of the channel.

It would also be a clear 3 wave correction pattern too! A lot of potential confluence to go long after the move down.

This would also form a bullish set up (Bull 123)/( Bullish Gartley )

Look for entries on the lower time-frames, preferably the 1hr. Stops @ or above 1.28969

#BearringtonTrader
#HappyTrading

A New Trading Opportunity to Buy. TP3 hit with 136583902 profit.

A New Trading Opportunity to Buy. TP3 hit with 136583902 profit.


STELLAR/DOLLAR
New trading suggestion:
*The price is in an up trend and we forecast the uptrend would continue.
*There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (0.31), if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.

Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to “Buy zone” then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether “Hammer” or “Valley”, in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about “Entry signal” and special version of our “Price Action” strategy FOLLOW our lessons:

Trade Setup:
We opened 7 BUY trade(s) @ 0.21919402(day close price) based on the reversal candle ( Hammer ) & ( the Bullish Exit in RSI H4 ) at 03.18.2018.

Total Profit: 136583902
Closed trade(s): 51241794 Profit
Open trade(s): 85342108 Profit

Closed Profit:
TP1 @ 0.31 touched at 04.15.2018 with 9080598 Profit.
TP2 @ 0.40 touched at 04.20.2018 with 18080598 Profit.
TP3 @ 0.46 touched at 04.29.2018 with 24080598 Profit.
9080598 + 18080598 + 24080598 = 51241794

Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 0.43254929(current price) – 0.21919402(open price) = 21335527
4 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 21335527 x 4 = 85342108
All SLs             moved to Break-even point.

Take Profits:
TP4= @ 0.66
TP5= @ 0.74
TP6= @ 0.96
TP7= Free

Technical analysis:
Stellar/Dollar is in an up trend and continuation of up trend is expected.
The price is above the 21-Day WEMA which acts as a dynamic support.
The RSI is at 67.

XRP – Bullish Pennant – 4th Impulsive Correctional Wave

XRP – Bullish Pennant – 4th Impulsive Correctional Wave

Ripple / Dollar BITFINEX:XRPUSD


I expect a bit a bigger correction in order to form Pennant Formation. However, because of the extreme sell off that we saw 25th of April – it can possibly be invalid and thats why we track elliot waves in this market.

In this case, Ripple found support at 0.45 level and turned sharply just like other cryptocurrencies, but beware, because Ripple can be 4th way of correction as well.

Ripple’s XRP gained just 0.53% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 7.56% rally, to end the day at $0.86886, logging in a 1.25% gain for the week, Monday through Sunday.

The good news for the day was breaking back into $0.90 levels for the first time since Wednesday’s $0.93193 high off the back of which Ripple’s XRP took a tumble to just hold on to $0.80 levels before a recovery through the 2nd half of the week.

Sunday’s high $0.91466 saw Ripple’s XRP break through the first major resistance level of $0.9107, while falling well short of the 2nd resistance level , with a mid-morning reversal to an intraday low $0.8262 calling on support through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $0.8477, buyers holding off a more material decline through to the 1st major support level of $0.8045 to bring sub-$0.70 into play.

A 2nd half of the day rally, supported by improved broader market sentiment, saw Ripple’s XRP recover, while failing to move back through to the day’s high to bring $1.00 levels into play for the day.

While Ripple’s XRP saw relatively lacklustre gains for the week, platform adoption across the financial sector and wider availability on exchanges in key markets will continue to be the key drivers for Ripple’s XRP. Investors will be looking out for news of exchanges announcing inclusion and an increase in trade pairings, the combination of two supporting the bullish projections for the year should things go according to plan.